Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 16.281908 19.755167 23.596677 28.134571 33.321593 39.038682 45.788647
2025-10-05 11.568715 16.165441 21.789451 29.059039 38.081889 48.785815 62.307121
2025-10-12 8.867161 13.894032 20.552859 29.761738 41.888311 57.024524 77.028069
2025-10-19 7.028303 12.201855 19.546845 30.297506 45.150982 64.449586 90.856549
2025-10-26 5.784824 11.029955 18.951960 31.129345 48.646581 72.167514 105.265550
2025-11-02 4.560973 9.591759 17.685800 30.745968 50.279021 77.335566 116.412763
2025-11-09 3.723825 8.592481 16.897216 30.893740 52.554192 83.371694 128.873678
2025-11-16 3.007826 7.633923 16.001481 30.715779 54.241144 88.563485 140.286287
2025-11-23 2.348616 6.612557 14.820967 29.902771 54.823044 92.100123 149.413649
2025-11-30 2.034343 6.227721 14.706508 30.818819 58.110525 99.699141 164.590388
2025-12-07 1.625605 5.516351 13.861433 30.358772 59.112804 103.863614 174.856269
2025-12-14 1.361056 5.073679 13.465971 30.635424 61.299038 109.876284 188.011550
2025-12-21 0.971332 4.186509 12.049050 28.958145 60.225195 111.010438 194.283554
2025-12-28 0.833943 3.969922 12.049553 29.994226 63.914235 119.873597 212.727810
2026-01-04 0.700701 3.712334 11.907755 30.720459 67.079841 128.004373 230.295494
2026-01-11 0.581261 3.447466 11.696786 31.269943 69.937173 135.720913 247.438984
2026-01-18 0.493902 3.259318 11.639218 32.122374 73.381029 144.516154 266.530876
2026-01-25 0.378597 2.890356 11.037255 31.729537 74.450536 149.352536 279.434464
2026-02-01 0.302030 2.640795 10.703589 31.880959 76.541907 155.971489 295.372697
2026-02-08 0.232453 2.370723 10.249902 31.698602 77.951620 161.442934 309.569569
2026-02-15 0.165767 2.048388 9.557849 30.865433 77.996827 164.509508 319.869556
2026-02-22 0.140738 1.964618 9.599510 31.804188 81.657759 174.061879 341.168736
2026-03-01 0.101906 1.733842 9.097501 31.332757 82.385428 178.393066 353.827456